Developed in partnership between EMARKETER and the RLC Global Forum, the new “Global Digital Index: GCC Edition” report provides practical insights into digital engagement, cross-border e-commerce, and the evolving behaviors of consumers in the Gulf.
The digital engagement paradox
The research highlights a fundamental market paradox that extends beyond the region: high digital engagement does not automatically translate into high e-commerce penetration. According to the digital index findings, consumers in the Middle East are among the most digitally active globally, outpacing the worldwide average across every major media category. Saudi Arabia, for instance, ranks No. 1 globally alongside the US for daily time spent on streaming and online TV, while the UAE ranks fourth globally. Across mobile, social, and messaging channels, Gulf consumers spent nearly three hours per day connected.
Yet, despite this digital saturation, retail e-commerce in the region remains in an early stage of maturity. In Saudi Arabia, e-commerce accounted for just 7.2% of total retail sales in 2023, sitting far behind global leaders like China, where e-commerce penetration nears 50%. More broadly, EMARKETER forecasts that in 2025, only one of 66 tracked countries worldwide — the Philippines — will achieve retail e-commerce growth rates above 20%. This underscores a critical commercial reality: traditional indicators, such as a young, mobile-first population, do not guarantee rapid or uninterrupted e-commerce expansion.
Contextualizing Gulf penetration against global benchmarks
Understanding the Gulf’s digital trajectory requires positioning its data within a global context rather than evaluating it in isolation. On paper, digital penetration figures for retail (7.6% for Saudi Arabia and Qatar; 12.0% for the UAE in 2025) appear modest compared to the global average of 20.8%. However, the report points out that global metrics are heavily skewed by China, which alone accounts for roughly 50% of global retail e-commerce revenues.
When China is excluded from the calculation, the adjusted worldwide average for e-commerce penetration drops to approximately 12.5%. Under this benchmark, the UAE (12.0%) is virtually at par with global levels and outperforms major European economies such as France (10.2%) and Spain (11.0%). Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Qatar sit in the “still emerging” tier, tracking slightly above lower-penetration European markets like Austria and Italy. Together, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are projected to generate just under $15 billion in retail e-commerce revenues in 2025, followed by steady, single-digit to modest growth (~10%) annually.
A primary structural reason for this measured growth is the region’s deeply entrenched physical retail infrastructure. Malls in the GCC serve as major social hubs and climate-controlled leisure destinations, creating high baseline resistance to pure-play online retail — especially in sensory, tactile categories like apparel, beauty, and grocery.
The cross-border wild card and impending saturation
The Gulf’s digital marketplace has been heavily shaped by cross-border e-commerce giants, particularly Asia-based platforms like Shein and Temu. Driven by limited local product assortments historically and aggressive customer acquisition strategies, these platforms dominated regional app adoption. In Saudi Arabia, the top four downloaded shopping apps were Temu, Trendyol, AliExpress, and Shein; in the UAE, Temu, Trendyol, and Shein led the list. Engagement scaled rapidly: by late 2024, Temu recorded 7.6 million monthly active Android users in the UAE and 5.6 million in Saudi Arabia—surpassing user levels in the UK, a market over 18 times the size of the UAE and Saudi Arabia combined by e-commerce value.
However, the report tracks an inflection point suggesting these cross-border giants may be reaching a plateau. Globally, Temu has warned of slowing revenue growth, with monthly active user counts stalling in the UAE and declining in Saudi Arabia. Similarly, Shein has faced decelerating global revenue growth, with its monthly active app users in the Gulf showing month-over-month declines in late 2024—reversing steady gains made earlier in the year.
Strategic opportunities for local retailers
This shift opens a crucial window of opportunity for regional businesses. While local retailers cannot realistically compete on price with global discount platforms, they hold distinct advantages in product selection, fulfillment convenience, and physical brand touchpoints.
By leveraging physical footprints for omnichannel fulfillment — such as click-and-collect and ship-from-store options — local brand owners and enterprise retailers can optimize margins, deliver superior customer convenience, and capture market share as cross-border growth cools.
Developed in partnership between the RLC Global Forum and EMARKETER, this digital index report serves as an essential strategic roadmap for businesses, investors, and policymakers navigating commerce across the GCC.
Read the full report.
