It’s barely autumn, but in retail time, the holiday season is already breathing down our necks. In less than two months, Christmas lights will flicker across high streets and digital storefronts alike and, while most shoppers are still debating Halloween costumes, the world of commerce is already deep in its favorite ritual: forecasting.
Because retail never truly sleeps. It surveys, models and anticipates, running the numbers long before the first snowflake falls and the first tree is lit up. And this year, the message is clear: expect a quieter, more measured kind of cheer.
According to Salesforce’s 2025 retail sales forecast, U.S. online holiday sales are set to rise by just 2.1%, reaching $288 billion between November 1 and December 31. That’s a slowdown from last year’s 4% growth and a far cry from the heady post-pandemic years when double-digit e-commerce surges rewrote every playbook in view.
These are signs of a cooling. A soft landing after a decade of acceleration. Shoppers are still spending, but they’re doing it more carefully, with inflation, interest rates, and uncertainty tempering their optimism.
Salesforce’s projection—based on data from 1.5 billion global shoppers across 89 markets and sentiment surveys of 5,500 consumers—signals the emergence of a new consumer profile: active, but selective; optimistic, but cautious. The thrill of excess has been replaced by the comfort of control.
The return of the cautious consumer
If the 2025 holiday retail sales forecast signals anything, it’s that consumers are still in flux. They are spending with a kind of quiet discipline, steering away from the impulse-driven habits of the pandemic years and toward a more measured, value-led mindset.
Inflation has cooled compared to recent highs, but its effects are still being felt. Everyday essentials continue to claim a larger share of the household budget, leaving less room for discretionary splurges. Add in the lingering weight of high interest rates and economic uncertainty, and it’s little wonder shoppers are approaching this holiday season with caution rather than abandon.
Still, caution doesn’t mean paralysis. Consumers are simply recalibrating what celebration looks like. They’re seeking value without compromise, trading quantity for quality. As Salesforce’s research suggests, this is the new shape of spending: active but selective.
The pattern holds across income brackets. Higher-income shoppers are curbing luxury purchases and rebalancing their gifting budgets, while middle-income households are spreading their spending earlier to avoid financial strain in December. Many are planning gifts weeks in advance, comparing prices across retailers, and using digital tools to track discounts and delivery times.
As Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights at Salesforce, told Digital Commerce 360, shoppers remain cautious heading into the 2025 holiday season: “Shoppers told us pretty much the same thing that they told us in 2024, which is that they’re buying less … They’re prioritizing essentials and they’re trading down for lower-priced goods.”
In other words, U.S. e-commerce growth is maturing. The digital marketplace is evolving from an engine of spontaneous consumption to one of intentional choice. This behavioral shift is subtle but strategic. It’s a reminder that retail’s greatest challenge this season is discernment. Understanding where, how, and why consumers are still willing to spend may prove more critical than ever.
Less but smarter
If consumers are recalibrating, retailers are doing the same. After years of reactionary discounting and inventory whiplash, this year’s strategy is less about urgency and more about precision.
Promotions are still happening, but they’re sharper, shorter, and smarter. Major players like Amazon and Target are hosting targeted “holiday deal days” rather than week-long markdown marathons. Walmart, meanwhile, is focusing its discounts on high-volume essentials—notably toys, household goods and value bundles—rather than scattering price cuts across every category. The idea isn’t to flood the market with deals, but to engineer demand where it matters most.
It’s a significant shift from the “volume era” of 2020–2022, when retailers chased growth through aggressive discounting and mass promotions. Those years delivered traffic but drained margins. In 2025, profitability is the new prize. Retailers are becoming more selective about what to discount and when, balancing immediate conversion with long-term brand value.
