The luxury watch industry finds itself in a paradoxical moment. On one side, Swiss watch exports—long considered the heartbeat of the sector—are faltering under the combined strain of weaker Chinese demand and tariffs from the United States. The figures signal more than just a temporary downturn; they reveal how fragile global luxury supply chains have become when overexposed to a handful of dominant markets.
Yet, while macroeconomic turbulence weighs heavily on exports, the industry is also showing signs of reinvention. Major watch brands are rethinking their growth strategies, turning to experiential retail concepts and targeting new, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and India. Tactical maneuvers that reflect an emerging blueprint for resilience.
For luxury watches to sustain relevance and profitability in the decades ahead, survival will hinge on a dual strategy: diversifying beyond traditional markets while reimagining how consumers engage with heritage brands. In other words, the future of Swiss watch exports will be shaped as much by cultural adaptation and experiential innovation as by craftsmanship itself.
A luxury symbol in distress
For all their reputation as the ultimate symbols of resilience and timelessness, Swiss luxury watches have proven vulnerable to the economic storms. After three consecutive years of recovery, the industry stumbled in 2024, posting a 2.8% decline to CHF 26.0 billion, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH). It was the first contraction since the pandemic, and it revealed the widening gap between buoyant markets and those in free fall.
The turbulence continued into 2025. By August, cumulative exports for the first eight months totaled CHF 17.0 billion, down 1.0% year-on-year. That month alone saw a bruising -16.5% decline, with every major market registering double-digit drops. China (-35.6%) and the U.S. (-23.9%) were among the hardest hit, while Japan (-22.5%) and the UK (-20.5%) also slumped. FH noted that the U.S. decline partly reflected a “rebalancing” after unusually high export levels earlier in the year, when shipments were pulled forward to anticipate new tariffs.
This whipsaw effect underlines the fragility of over-reliance on a handful of markets. The U.S., China, and Hong Kong alone accounted for more than a third of Swiss exports in 2024, leaving the sector dangerously exposed to policy shifts in Washington and consumer sentiment in Beijing.
As FH bluntly warned in its 2024 annual communique: “Any recovery in the market will depend largely on the outlook in China, where uncertainty remains high.” That uncertainty, compounded by tariff risks in the U.S. and shifting geopolitical alignments, suggests that volatility may be the industry’s new normal.
Local solutions: Diversifying beyond China and the U.S.
As China falters and the U.S. market shows signs of distortion from tariff-related surges, Swiss watchmakers are looking elsewhere for balance. Southeast Asia’s aspirational middle classes are emerging as a growth driver, with Singapore serving as a regional gateway and markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showing new appetite for luxury. The Middle East, where hospitality and gift-giving traditions intersect naturally with craftsmanship, has reinforced its role as a cultural anchor, with initiatives LIKE Dubai Watch Week positioning horology as part of the region’s identity rather than just a luxury import.
Meanwhile, India’s expanding wealthy class represents one of the last great frontiers. As former Panerai CEO Jean-Marc Pontroué observed in 2024, “We are still at the beginning of expansion in India. But over the next decade, it will be one of the most promising markets for the luxury industry in general, and for watches in particular.” His assessment underscores both the promise and the complexity of entering a fragmented, regulation-heavy market.
The lesson is clear: growth will not come from simple entry, but from embedding watches into local cultural codes, whether that means exhibitions that feel regionally authentic, collaborations that speak to national pride, or retail partnerships that navigate regulatory hurdles. For Swiss luxury watches, diversification is a necessity the industry can no longer ignore.
Experiences as strategy and sustainability
As Swiss watch exports wobble in the face of global headwinds, immersive brand experiences are emerging as a more resilient way to engage audiences. Instead of relying on endless product launches, watchmakers are building cultural moments—exhibitions, boutique experiences, and pop-ups—that deepen loyalty while carrying a lighter environmental footprint.
Rolex offers a good case study in how sustainability and experience intersect. Its Perpetual philosophy, which the brand defines as “a durable and timeless product at the heart of a responsible approach”, is not a flashy marketing activation but a guiding principle: longevity and responsibility are embedded in the brand’s culture. The experiential dimension emerges when that philosophy is translated into retail. Watches of Switzerland, Rolex’s largest partner, even developed a detailed “Experience Playbook” to choreograph how clients encounter the brand in-store—from the greeting to the art curation—ensuring every boutique visit feels immersive and aligned with Rolex’s enduring values.
Other maisons have taken more visible approaches. Vacheron Constantin’s cultural exhibitions in Shanghai, or Dubai Watch Week’s horology forums, place storytelling at the heart of the interaction, creating emotional equity that no single watch model could match. Meanwhile, the Swatch Group’s sustainability commitments—including recycling its own gold and reducing energy use across facilities—help free resources for experiences that emphasize culture over pure volume and relentless launches.
What ties these strategies together is efficiency as much as creativity. Staging an exhibition or curating a boutique may consume fewer resources than launching multiple new models, while delivering outsized impact on brand equity. Experiences shift the focus from transaction to interaction, reinforcing heritage without exhausting consumers or the planet.
Time to reinvent
Swiss watch exports will likely remain vulnerable to global volatility. But the industry is hardly powerless. By diversifying beyond overexposed markets and investing in experiences that carry both cultural and sustainable weight, Swiss watchmakers can chart a steadier course.
In many ways, this is a reminder that the essence of luxury horology has never been about measuring minutes alone. The true test now lies in how brands measure up to the challenges of a changing world: balancing tradition with reinvention, scarcity with accessibility, and products with meaning.
